"We'll go into a very modest winter increase" in COVID-19 cases, he said. "We're transitioning from the pandemic phase to the more endemic phase of this virus, where this virus just becomes a persistent menace here in the United States," former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said.Ĭhris Murray, a leading disease forecaster at the University of Washington, likewise sees the U.S. Delta wave will wrap up this month, and represent the last major COVID-19 surge. Several experts said they expect the U.S. from county by county to country by country,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard T.H. “The transition is going to be different in each place because it's going to be driven by the amount of immunity in the population from natural infection and of course, vaccine distribution, which is variable. The variant has also contributed to rising infections in countries such as Singapore and China, which have high rates of vaccination but little natural immunity due to much stricter lockdown measures. 26.Įurope has been an exception, with Delta wreaking new havoc in countries with low vaccination coverage such as Russia and Romania, as well as places that have lifted mask-wearing requirements. "It's amazing to me to be seeing, you know, people out on the streets, as if everything is over."ĬOVID-19 cases and deaths have been declining since August in nearly all regions of the world, according to the WHO's report on Oct. In the meantime, she worries about countries lifting COVID precautions prematurely. "If we reach that target, we will be in a very, very different situation epidemiologically," Van Kerkhove said. By the end of 2022, the WHO aims for 70% of the world's population to be vaccinated. The agency's view is based on work with disease experts who are mapping out the probable course of the pandemic over the next 18 months.
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